气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Recent aridity trends and future projections in the nemunas river basin

CCPortal

DOI	10.3354/cr01514
	Recent aridity trends and future projections in the nemunas river basin
	Stonevi; Rimkus E.; Kažys J.; Bukantis A.; Kriau; Akstinas V.; Jakimavi; Povilaitis A.; Ložys L.; Kesminas V.; Virbickas T.; Pliūraite V.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	143
结束页码	154
卷号	75 期号:2
英文摘要	Changes in the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and precipitation (P) patterns in the Nemunas River basin (Baltic Sea catchment) are evident today and will be even more significant in the future. Nemunas basin aridity dynamics (1901−2010) and projections (2081−2100) were evaluated using the UNEP aridity index (AI). Historical analysis (CRU TS3.24.01) and future projections (EURO-CORDEX) of monthly air temperature and precipitation were used for the AI estimation. Projections of the meteorological parameters according to 4 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) were used in the analysis. In the Nemunas River basin, evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation from April to August, and in a large part of the basin the climatic conditions during this part of the year could be described as dry subhumid (AI < 0.65). Since the 1980s, increased aridity has been observed between April and August due to a strong positive trend of ET0 and a strong negative trend of P. Future projections (2081−2100) show that despite large uncertainties in the climate projections, it is more likely that the Nemunas basin climate will become more humid in April and May and drier between June and August. The increase in climate aridity during these months is more likely in the southern and central parts of the basin. © Inter-Research 2018.
英文关键词	AI; Aridity index; Climate change; EURO-CORDEX; Nemunas basin; Precipitation; Reference evapotranspiration
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; aridity; climate conditions; climate prediction; evapotranspiration; future prospect; historical record; index method; precipitation (climatology); river basin; trend analysis; Atlantic Ocean; Baltic Sea; Nemunas Basin
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146973
作者单位	Institute of Geosciences, Vilnius University, Vilnius, 03101, Lithuania; Lithuanian Energy Institute, Kaunas, 44403, Lithuania; Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Kaunas-Akademija, 53361, Lithuania; Nature Research Centre, Vilnius, 08412, Lithuania
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stonevi
APA	StoneviClimate Research,75(2).
MLA	StoneviClimate Research 75.2(2018).