气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drought in the Southeastern USA: An assessment of downscaled CMIP5 models

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DOI	10.3354/cr01502
	Drought in the Southeastern USA: An assessment of downscaled CMIP5 models
	Engström J.; Keellings D.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	251
结束页码	262
卷号	74 期号:3
英文摘要	The Southeastern USA has been repeatedly affected by severe droughts that have impacted the environment and economy of the region. In this study, the ability of 32 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA), to simulate historical observations of dry spells from 1950 to 2005 are assessed using Perkins skill scores and significance tests. The analysis is split between cold and warm seasons based on timing of agricultural planting and harvesting dates of key crops. The models generally simulate the distribution of dry days well but there are significant differences between the ability of the best- and worst-performing models, particularly when it comes to the upper tail of the distribution. Only the top models provide a good estimate of extreme dry-spell lengths with simulations of 20 yr return values within ±5 d of observed values across the region. The findings provide guidance on selection of a suitable model ensemble for assessment of future drought risk in the Southeastern USA. © Inter-Research 2018.
英文关键词	Drought; LOCA climate models; Localized constructed analogs; Precipitation; Southeastern USA
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; climate effect; climate modeling; climate prediction; CMIP; drought; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; United States
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146961
作者单位	Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States; Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Engström J.,Keellings D.. Drought in the Southeastern USA: An assessment of downscaled CMIP5 models[J],2018,74(3).
APA	Engström J.,&Keellings D..(2018).Drought in the Southeastern USA: An assessment of downscaled CMIP5 models.Climate Research,74(3).
MLA	Engström J.,et al."Drought in the Southeastern USA: An assessment of downscaled CMIP5 models".Climate Research 74.3(2018).