气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detection and attribution of climate change signals in South India maximum and minimum temperatures

CCPortal

DOI	10.3354/cr01530
	Detection and attribution of climate change signals in South India maximum and minimum temperatures
	Sonali P.; Nanjundiah R.S.; Kumar D.N.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	145
结束页码	160
卷号	76 期号:2
英文摘要	South India has seen significant changes in climate. Previous studies have shown that the southern part of India is more susceptible to effects of climate change than the rest of the country. We performed a rigorous climate model-based detection and attribution analysis to determine the root cause of the recent changes in climate over South India using fingerprint analysis. A modified Mann-Kendall test signalized non-stationariness in maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) in most seasons during the period 1950-2012. The diminishing cloud cover trend may have induced significant changes in temperature during the considered time period. Significant downward trends in relative humidity during most seasons could be evidence of the recent significant warming. The observed seasonal Tmax and Tmin change patterns are strongly associated with the El Ninõ Southern Oscillation. Significant positive associations between South India temperatures and the Ninõ3.4 index were found in all seasons. The fingerprint approach indicated that the natural internal variability obtained from 14 climate model control simulations could not explain these significant changes in Tmax (post-monsoon) and Tmin (pre-monsoon and monsoon) in South India. Moreover, an experiment simulating natural external forcings (solar and volcanic) did not coincide with the observed signal strength. The dominant external factors leading to climate change are greenhouse gases, and their impact is eminent compared to other factors such as land use change and anthropogenic aerosols. Anthropogenic signals are identifiable in observed changes in Tmax and Tmin of South India, and these changes can be explained only when anthropogenic forcing is involved. © 2018 Inter-Research.
英文关键词	Attribution; Climate change; CMIP5 models; Detection; Fingerprint; Signal strength; South India; Temperature
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146957
作者单位	Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India; Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sonali P.,Nanjundiah R.S.,Kumar D.N.. Detection and attribution of climate change signals in South India maximum and minimum temperatures[J],2018,76(2).
APA	Sonali P.,Nanjundiah R.S.,&Kumar D.N..(2018).Detection and attribution of climate change signals in South India maximum and minimum temperatures.Climate Research,76(2).
MLA	Sonali P.,et al."Detection and attribution of climate change signals in South India maximum and minimum temperatures".Climate Research 76.2(2018).