气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Weighting a regional climate model ensemble: Does it make a difference? Can it make a difference?

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DOI	10.3354/cr01541
	Weighting a regional climate model ensemble: Does it make a difference? Can it make a difference?
	Bukovsky M.S.; Thompson J.A.; Mearns L.O.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	23
结束页码	43
卷号	77 期号:1
英文摘要	We explore the effect of weighting using the performance metrics developed for weighting in the ENSEMBLES program on the regional climate model (RCM) ensemble produced as a part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). We consider weighting a reanalysis-driven ensemble, as well as the effect on baseline GCM-driven ensemble mean bias, and mean climate change projections. This work evaluates when, where, and how weighting affects the ensemble mean results. We conclude that, in most cases, the metrics and resulting weights do not substantially differentiate the simulations. Also, the metrics do not always produce the same quality ranking results as an in-depth process-level analysis, implying that important, region-specific processes may be missing from this more universally applicable set of metrics. Moreover, it is found that when the metrics are used as weights, they do not consistently improve ensemble mean bias, as was found in the ENSEMBLES program. Furthermore, this analysis notably finds that weighting does not substantially change mean climate change projections unless all weight is applied to one or a few of the simulations that sit towards the extremes of the ensemble distribution, nor can it. We demonstrate why this is so. © 2019 Inter-Research.
英文关键词	Metrics; NARCCAP; Regional climate; Weighting
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; general circulation model; regional climate
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146943
作者单位	National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO 80301, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bukovsky M.S.,Thompson J.A.,Mearns L.O.. Weighting a regional climate model ensemble: Does it make a difference? Can it make a difference?[J],2019,77(1).
APA	Bukovsky M.S.,Thompson J.A.,&Mearns L.O..(2019).Weighting a regional climate model ensemble: Does it make a difference? Can it make a difference?.Climate Research,77(1).
MLA	Bukovsky M.S.,et al."Weighting a regional climate model ensemble: Does it make a difference? Can it make a difference?".Climate Research 77.1(2019).