气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical analysis (1981−2017) of drought severity and magnitude over a predominantly arid region of Pakistan

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DOI	10.3354/cr01568
	Historical analysis (1981−2017) of drought severity and magnitude over a predominantly arid region of Pakistan
	Hina S.; Saleem F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	189
结束页码	204
卷号	78 期号:3
英文摘要	Droughts are one of the multifaceted meteorological disasters affecting agriculture, livestock and water resources worldwide. Pakistan has a semiarid climate system with a high degree of interannual rainfall variability. This study evaluates the applicability and comparison of 3 drought indices (deciles index [DI], standardized precipitation index [SPI] and reconnaissance drought index [RDI]) in Pakistan. Monthly rainfall and temperature data (1981−2017) from 30 weather stations were used to analyze the current status of drought occurrence in terms of severity and magnitude. A nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates were applied on drought indices to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the trend. The DI captured the dry episodes in the region well, as Baluchistan and Sindh provinces have been seen to be more susceptible to droughts. The indices of SPI and RDI were well correlated at 3, 6, 9 and 12 mo timescales. Province-level analysis revealed the highest number of drought years during the 3 mo timescale and the lowest number of drought years during the 12 mo timescale. Overall, a linearly increasing trend of SPI and RDI (towards wetness) was observed, whereas the province-level analysis showed a statistically significant trend at the 95% confidence level for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh in the long-term drought analysis. Moreover, analyses of historical drought years and their intensity have been investigated and compared with a recent long drought episode (1999−2002). The analysis of historical drought events highlights the challenging nature of drought management in Pakistan. The outcomes of this study would help water resource managers to investigate drought response measures for drought preparedness in the country. © The authors 2019.
英文关键词	Climate change; Drought indices; Pakistan; Severity; Trend analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; annual variation; arid region; climate change; drought; episodic event; estimation method; historical record; precipitation assessment; trend analysis; weather station; Pakistan
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146932
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan; International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hina S.,Saleem F.. Historical analysis (1981−2017) of drought severity and magnitude over a predominantly arid region of Pakistan[J],2019,78(3).
APA	Hina S.,&Saleem F..(2019).Historical analysis (1981−2017) of drought severity and magnitude over a predominantly arid region of Pakistan.Climate Research,78(3).
MLA	Hina S.,et al."Historical analysis (1981−2017) of drought severity and magnitude over a predominantly arid region of Pakistan".Climate Research 78.3(2019).