气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A new method to identify robust climate analogues

CCPortal

DOI	10.3354/cr01567
	A new method to identify robust climate analogues
	Walther C.; Lüdeke M.; Gudipudi R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	179
结束页码	187
卷号	78 期号:2
英文摘要	Climate analogues are a comprehensive approach for learning how to deal with the expected climatic future from current examples. Existing literature on climate analogues struggles with 2 methodological challenges: How to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty of climate projections and how to define reasonable lower limits of similarity for climate analogues. Here, we suggest a new method to identify robust climate analogues (RCAs) based on a clustering approach in climate space where each spatial grid element is represented by 3 points: Its current climate, and a lower and upper bound of the climate projections. If the upper and lower bound of the projections for such a grid element share the same cluster and, additionally, this cluster contains current climate points, then the grid elements related to the latter are defined as RCAs. This definition divides the map of the investigated region into areas with RCAs and uncharted areas where, under the current uncertainty range of climate projections, such an attribution is not justified. An exemplary application of the algorithm for Europe shows that RCAs can be identified for 37% of the land area and that the new method allows selection of socioeconomically reasonable RCAs from climatologically equivalent (given the current uncertainty) grid elements. © 2019 Inter-Research. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Adaptation; Climate analogue; Clustering algorithm; Regional climate model; Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; climate change; climate prediction; cluster analysis; uncertainty analysis; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146925
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Walther C.,Lüdeke M.,Gudipudi R.. A new method to identify robust climate analogues[J],2019,78(2).
APA	Walther C.,Lüdeke M.,&Gudipudi R..(2019).A new method to identify robust climate analogues.Climate Research,78(2).
MLA	Walther C.,et al."A new method to identify robust climate analogues".Climate Research 78.2(2019).