气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Variability of heat waves and recurrence probability of the severe 2003 and 2013 heat waves in Zhejiang Province; southeast China

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DOI	10.3354/cr01578
	Variability of heat waves and recurrence probability of the severe 2003 and 2013 heat waves in Zhejiang Province; southeast China
	Lou W.; Yao Y.; Sun K.; Deng S.; Yang M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	63
结束页码	75
卷号	79 期号:1
英文摘要	Summer heat wave (HW) events have disastrous consequences for human health, economies, and ecosystems. The present study investigates the variability of HWs and estimates the recurrence probabilities of the severe 2003 and 2013 hot summers in Zhejiang Province, southeast China. We define a HW event as ≥3 consecutive days having a daily maximum temperature ≥35°C. Considering this definition, 2 HW indices were adopted: the yearly sum of accumulated harmful high temperature (YAHHT) of HWs and the yearly sum of HW duration (HWD). We found that the YAHHT and HWD have had significant increasing trends in the majority of Zhejiang. The inter-annual variability of HWs can be divided into 3 periods: 1973-1987, 1988- 2002, and 2003-2017. The severity levels of HWs in Zhejiang had a clearly increasing trend ac cording to the YAHHT and HWD. The average YAHHT and HWD in 2003-2017 were, respectively, >2.0 and >1.5 times those in 1973-1987 and 1988-2002. We also estimated the recurrence probabilities of the HWs that occurred in Zhejiang during July-September 2003 and 2013. The recurrence probabilities of such severe HWs, which were assessed in simulations using an information diffusion model, are higher in the present climate. © Inter-Research 2019.
英文关键词	Accumulated harmful high temperature of heat waves; Information diffusion model; Recurrence probability; Variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; heat wave; high temperature; model; nature-society relations; public health; spatiotemporal analysis; China; Zhejiang
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146923
作者单位	Xinchang Weather Bureau, Xinchang County, Zhejiang Province, 312500, China; Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou, 310017, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lou W.,Yao Y.,Sun K.,et al. Variability of heat waves and recurrence probability of the severe 2003 and 2013 heat waves in Zhejiang Province; southeast China[J],2019,79(1).
APA	Lou W.,Yao Y.,Sun K.,Deng S.,&Yang M..(2019).Variability of heat waves and recurrence probability of the severe 2003 and 2013 heat waves in Zhejiang Province; southeast China.Climate Research,79(1).
MLA	Lou W.,et al."Variability of heat waves and recurrence probability of the severe 2003 and 2013 heat waves in Zhejiang Province; southeast China".Climate Research 79.1(2019).