气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Deviation between projected and observed precipitation trends greater with altitude

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DOI	10.3354/cr01583
	Deviation between projected and observed precipitation trends greater with altitude
	Murphy T.R.; Hanley M.E.; Ellis J.S.; Lunt P.H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	77
结束页码	89
卷号	79 期号:1
英文摘要	Variation in the amount and intensity of precipitation is one of the most important factors determining how biological systems respond to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, given the importance of climate projections for influencing (inter)national policy, there is a pressing need to contextualise contemporary projections with observed trends to better informenvironmental strategy and planning. In this study,we examine trends fromone of the longest paired time series of upland (>300 m a.s.l.) and lowland precipitation records (1879-2012), and shorter-term obser - vations (1961-2015) from multiple upland locations in southwestern (SW) England (Dartmoor National Park). In the period 1879-2012, total precipitation at the upland site increased by more than 10% for spring, autumn, winter and annually; at the lowland site, only spring experienced a significant increase (8%) in precipitation. Increases in autumn, winter and annual precipitation were recorded at upland sites since the 1960s.We compare observed precipitation trends with the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18) for the region across 2 timeframes (60 and 90 yr). Changes in the 30 yr average between reference (1981-2010) and observed and projected precipitation totals were compared and deviations calculated. Comparisons between model projections and observed trends show large deviations for spring, summer and autumn precipitation in the mid- to late 21st century, with the deviation greatest in upland localities. However, winter projections were broadly consistent with observed trends. Our results suggest that uncertainties in future precipitation change are greatest in the uplands, where the impacts on ecosystem services are the largest. © Inter-Research 2019.
英文关键词	Ecosystem services; Global change biology; Precipitation trends; UKCP18; Upland ecosystems; Western Europe
语种	英语
scopus关键词	altitude; anthropogenic effect; ecosystem service; global change; planning practice; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; time series; trend analysis; Dartmoor National Park; Devon; England; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146920
作者单位	School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, Plymouth University, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, United Kingdom; School of Biological and Marine Sciences, Plymouth University, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Murphy T.R.,Hanley M.E.,Ellis J.S.,et al. Deviation between projected and observed precipitation trends greater with altitude[J],2019,79(1).
APA	Murphy T.R.,Hanley M.E.,Ellis J.S.,&Lunt P.H..(2019).Deviation between projected and observed precipitation trends greater with altitude.Climate Research,79(1).
MLA	Murphy T.R.,et al."Deviation between projected and observed precipitation trends greater with altitude".Climate Research 79.1(2019).