气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the potential impacts of climate and population change on land-use changes projected to 2100 in Japan

CCPortal

DOI	10.3354/cr01580
	Assessing the potential impacts of climate and population change on land-use changes projected to 2100 in Japan
	Fujita T.; Ariga T.; Ohashi H.; Hijioka Y.; Fukasawa K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	139
结束页码	149
卷号	79 期号:2
英文摘要	Projecting land-use changes can help with identifying potential threats to biodiversity and ecosystem function, thus mitigating impacts on human livelihoods. We examined changes in 6 land-use categories in Japan: paddy fields, croplands, forests, wastelands, built-up areas, and other artificial land cover. Land-use changes were projected to the year 2100 while considering effects from climate and population change. We developed regression models to project proportional changes in land-use areas using predictors derived from a previous dataset. Using these models, we projected future trends of each land-use type under alternative climate and population change scenarios. Our results revealed that, in Japan, climate change is likely to have a greater impact on croplands, forests, and wastelands, whereas population change has more influence on paddy fields, built-up areas, and other artificial land cover. For example, proportional changes in forest area did not vary much among population change scenarios but differed substantially among climate change scenarios. In contrast, proportional changes in the areas of paddy fields did not vary much among climate change scenarios but differed greatly among population change scenarios. Our results also indicated that land-use changes can vary by region. Although the total area of paddy fields decreased nationally by the year 2100, paddy field area was projected to increase in Hokkaido, especially under the scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (an increase of 2228 km2, + 95.7 %). Our study confirms that climate and population change will affect future land-use changes in Japan. © Inter-Research 2019
英文关键词	Biodiversity; Demographics; Land-use change; Paddy; Random forest
语种	英语
scopus关键词	biodiversity; climate change; climate effect; greenhouse gas; land cover; land use change; paddy field; Hokkaido; Japan
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146913
作者单位	Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan; Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1, Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan; Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan; Center for Climate Change Adaption, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fujita T.,Ariga T.,Ohashi H.,et al. Assessing the potential impacts of climate and population change on land-use changes projected to 2100 in Japan[J],2019,79(2).
APA	Fujita T.,Ariga T.,Ohashi H.,Hijioka Y.,&Fukasawa K..(2019).Assessing the potential impacts of climate and population change on land-use changes projected to 2100 in Japan.Climate Research,79(2).
MLA	Fujita T.,et al."Assessing the potential impacts of climate and population change on land-use changes projected to 2100 in Japan".Climate Research 79.2(2019).