气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction of canola and spring wheat yield based on the Canadian meteorological centre’s monthly forecasting system

CCPortal

DOI	10.3354/cr01547
	Prediction of canola and spring wheat yield based on the Canadian meteorological centre’s monthly forecasting system
	Chipanshi A.C.; Qi D.; Zhang Y.; Lin H.; Newlands N.K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	155
结束页码	165
卷号	77 期号:2
英文摘要	With the goal of popularizing the use of readily available data sets from numerical weather prediction models in crop yield forecasting, we present a comparative analysis of end of season forecasts of wheat and canola from daily values of maximum and minimum temperature and total daily precipitation across the Canadian Prairies from (1) the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) and (2) statistically generated values from climate stations. The analysis was done using the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF), a tool for conducting crop yield outlooks within the growing season. We found that the GEPS data sets provided skillful forecasts of spring wheat and canola from selected Census of Agricultural Regions (CARs) in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Aggregated results for the Prairie region showed that the GEPS data had a similar predictive skill as the statistically generated values of temperature and precipitation for spring wheat and showed improved prediction skill overall for canola from the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. In the Canadian Prairie environment, where climatic records are short and spatially insufficient, the GEPS data set, which is produced every Thursday and gridded at 45 km resolution, can be used as a substitute for, or supplement to, station-generated climate variables. Because of the continuous improvement in numerical prediction models such as GEPS in terms of skill score and resolution, the testing of crop forecasting models should be done at regular intervals to take advantage of these data sets as they become available. © The authors 2019.
英文关键词	Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster; Canola; CCYF; Environmental Prediction System; Global; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; Spring wheat
语种	英语
scopus关键词	canola; crop yield; forecasting method; growing season; NDVI; prairie; precipitation (climatology); prediction; spring (season); temperature effect; weather forecasting; wheat; Alberta; Canada; Manitoba; Prairie Provinces; Saskatchewan; Brassica napus var. napus; Triticum aestivum
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146910
作者单位	Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 300-2010-12th Avenue, Regina, SK S4P 0M3, Canada; Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 960 Carling Avenue, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada; Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2121 route Transcanadienne, Dorval, QC H9P 1J3, Canada; Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 4200 Highway 97, Summerland, BC V0H 1Z0, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chipanshi A.C.,Qi D.,Zhang Y.,等. Prediction of canola and spring wheat yield based on the Canadian meteorological centre’s monthly forecasting system[J],2019,77(2).
APA	Chipanshi A.C.,Qi D.,Zhang Y.,Lin H.,&Newlands N.K..(2019).Prediction of canola and spring wheat yield based on the Canadian meteorological centre’s monthly forecasting system.Climate Research,77(2).
MLA	Chipanshi A.C.,et al."Prediction of canola and spring wheat yield based on the Canadian meteorological centre’s monthly forecasting system".Climate Research 77.2(2019).