气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of soil initialization on regional decadal climate predictions in Europe

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DOI	10.3354/cr01548
	The impact of soil initialization on regional decadal climate predictions in Europe
	Breil M.; Laube N.; Pinto J.G.; Schädler G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	139
结束页码	154
卷号	77 期号:2
英文摘要	Inaccuracies in soil initialization, caused by unbalanced soil conditions, are one possible reason for biases in regional climate predictions. Therefore, in the present study, stand-alone simulations with a land surface model are performed in order to create balanced soil conditions. The impact of different atmospheric forcing data on the quality of the stand-alone simulation is evaluated by comparing the results to observations. The results reveal that stand-alone simulations driven by the atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim give the best results in terms of the correlation to observed soil temperatures and soil water contents. Based on these results, a regional climate simulation is initialized with these balanced soil conditions and compared to a reference run with unbalanced soil. The results show that the soil initialization of decadal climate simulations generally affects the spatial variability of summer precipitation in Europe. However, no systematic added value of the initialization with balanced soil conditions is evident for precipitation. Still, a clear added value can be observed for the simulated summer temperatures, especially in warm and semi-arid regions like the Iberian Peninsula. Since the balanced soil initialization contains less soil water than the unbalanced one, this simulation is able to reproduce the characteristic drought stress in summer in a more realistic way. We conclude that proper soil initialization can lead to potentially better decadal predictions, particularly for warm and semi-arid regions. An accurate soil initialization may therefore become essential, especially in European areas that are expected to become warmer and drier in summer due to climate change, e.g. Central and Eastern Europe. © The authors 2019.
英文关键词	COSMO-CLM; Land surface model; Regional climate predictions; Soil initialization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric forcing; climate change; climate prediction; drought stress; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; seasonal variation; semiarid region; soil water; spatial variation; Eastern Europe; Iberian Peninsula
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146908
作者单位	Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Breil M.,Laube N.,Pinto J.G.,et al. The impact of soil initialization on regional decadal climate predictions in Europe[J],2019,77(2).
APA	Breil M.,Laube N.,Pinto J.G.,&Schädler G..(2019).The impact of soil initialization on regional decadal climate predictions in Europe.Climate Research,77(2).
MLA	Breil M.,et al."The impact of soil initialization on regional decadal climate predictions in Europe".Climate Research 77.2(2019).