气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation and quantification of surface air temperature over Eurasia based on CMIP5 models

CCPortal

DOI	10.3354/cr01549
	Evaluation and quantification of surface air temperature over Eurasia based on CMIP5 models
	Peng X.; Zhang T.; Frauenfeld O.W.; Wang K.; Sun W.; Luo J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	167
结束页码	180
卷号	77 期号:2
英文摘要	Parts of Eurasia underlain by large areas of frozen ground that are both sensitive to, and an indicator of, climate change. Previous studies have investigated the effect of climate change on frozen ground; however, those studies did not quantify the past or projected climate change effects for specific frozen ground regions. This study applied surface air temperature from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data set and the multi-model ensemble mean of 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to evaluate past and projected surface air temperature changes, and quantify changes in different frozen ground regions. Results indicate that CMIP5 can simulate surface air temperature over Eurasia well, and there is slightly better performance of CMIP5 ensemble averages in the late 20th century than in the early 20th century. Over the Eurasian continent, time-series of ensemble area-averaged mean annual air temperatures (MAT) from CMIP5 increased at about 0.074°C decade−1 during 1850−2005, and are projected to increase by 0.078−0.719°C decade−1, depending on future emission pathways, during 2006−2100. Compared to the period 1986−2005, the temperature is predicted to be 1.68−6.41°C higher during 2081−2100. Changes of MAT demonstrate that the fastest increase will occur in continuous permafrost regions, next in discontinuous permafrost regions, followed by sporadic, isolated, and relict permafrost, and finally non-permafrost regions. Overall, these results can be used to help estimate and project cryospheric changes. © The authors 2019.
英文关键词	CMIP5; Eurasia; Permafrost; Surface air temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; cryosphere; frozen ground; permafrost; quantitative analysis; temperature gradient; Eurasia
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146904
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China; Department of Geography, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843-3147, United States; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Peng X.,Zhang T.,Frauenfeld O.W.,et al. Evaluation and quantification of surface air temperature over Eurasia based on CMIP5 models[J],2019,77(2).
APA	Peng X.,Zhang T.,Frauenfeld O.W.,Wang K.,Sun W.,&Luo J..(2019).Evaluation and quantification of surface air temperature over Eurasia based on CMIP5 models.Climate Research,77(2).
MLA	Peng X.,et al."Evaluation and quantification of surface air temperature over Eurasia based on CMIP5 models".Climate Research 77.2(2019).