气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia

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DOI	10.3354/CR01596
	Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia
	Lockart N.; Kiem A.S.; Chiong R.; Askland H.H.; Maguire A.; Rich J.L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0936-577X
起始页码	85
结束页码	104
卷号	80 期号:2
英文摘要	Drought is a natural phenomenon that can have prolonged and widespread impacts on many communities and environments. The impact of climate change on drought is uncertain, which makes it challenging to quantify how future droughts will affect society. This study uses downscaled rainfall data from 4 global climate models (GCMs) and 2 time windows (1990-2009; 2060-2079) to estimate changes in the average length and intensity of single drought events, and the total number of months experiencing drought during each time window for the Hunter region of Australia. This region was chosen as it is economically important for Australia, and will be the focus of future work that examines the social and policy implications of projected climate change impacts on drought and human displacement. The changes in drought characteristics are assessed using Standardised Precipitation Index and deciles approaches, and 2 datasets: (1) downscaled GCM rainfall; and (2) historical gridded rainfall adjusted via a quantile-quantile approach conditioned on the GCM rainfall. Key findings are that the changes in drought characteristics vary spatially across the study region, and are highly dependent on the downscaled GCM rainfall used, with some regions showing opposing changes in drought characteristics between the ensemble members. Further, the change in drought characteristics between the current and future time windows tends to be greater using the downscaled GCM rainfall when compared with the GCMadjusted historical rainfall. These results pose the question of how GCM projections should be used to develop robust but cost-effective climate adaptation strategies. © 2020 Inter-Research.
英文关键词	Climate change; Meteorological drought; Regional climate models
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; climate change; climate modeling; downscaling; drought stress; general circulation model; historical perspective; precipitation intensity; regional climate; Australia
来源期刊	Climate Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146898
作者单位	School of Engineering (Environmental Engineering), University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia; Centre ForWater, Climate and Land, Faculty of Science (Earth Sciences), University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia; School of Electrical Engineering and Computing, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia; Centre for Social Research and Regional Futures, Centre for 21st Century Humanities, School of Humanities and Social Science, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia; Newcastle Law School, United Kingdom; Centre for Resources Health and Safety, School of Public Health and Medicine, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lockart N.,Kiem A.S.,Chiong R.,et al. Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia[J],2020,80(2).
APA	Lockart N.,Kiem A.S.,Chiong R.,Askland H.H.,Maguire A.,&Rich J.L..(2020).Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia.Climate Research,80(2).
MLA	Lockart N.,et al."Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia".Climate Research 80.2(2020).