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DOI	10.5194/cp-15-307-2019
	Inconsistencies between observed; reconstructed; and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE
	Bothe O.; Wagner S.; Zorita E.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	307
结束页码	334
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	The scarcity of long instrumental records, uncertainty in reconstructions, and insufficient skill in model simulations hamper assessing how regional precipitation changed over past centuries. Here, we use standardized precipitation data to compare a regional climate simulation, reconstructions, and long observational records of seasonal (March to July) mean precipitation in England and Wales over the past 350 years. The Standardized Precipitation Index is a valuable tool for assessing agreement between the different sources of information, as it allows for a comparison of the temporal evolution of percentiles of the precipitation distributions. These evolutions are not consistent among reconstructions, a regional simulation, and instrumental observations for severe and extreme dry and wet conditions. The lack of consistency between the different data sets may be due to the dominance of internal climate variability over the impact of natural exogenous forcing conditions on multi-decadal timescales. The disagreement between sources of information reduces our confidence in inferences about the origins of hydroclimate variability for small regions. However, it is encouraging that there is still some agreement between a regional simulation and observations. Our results emphasize the complexity of hydroclimate changes during the recent centuries and stress the necessity of a thorough understanding of the processes affecting forced and unforced precipitation variability. © 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate forcing; climate modeling; climate variation; extreme event; historical record; hydrometeorology; precipitation (climatology); reconstruction; regional climate; simulation; standardization; England; United Kingdom; Wales
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146851
作者单位	Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht, 21502, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bothe O.,Wagner S.,Zorita E.. Inconsistencies between observed; reconstructed; and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE[J],2019,15(1).
APA	Bothe O.,Wagner S.,&Zorita E..(2019).Inconsistencies between observed; reconstructed; and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE.Climate of the Past,15(1).
MLA	Bothe O.,et al."Inconsistencies between observed; reconstructed; and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE".Climate of the Past 15.1(2019).