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DOI	10.5194/cp-15-1395-2019
	Causes of increased flood frequency in central Europe in the 19th century
	Brönnimann S.; Frigerio L.; Schwander M.; Rohrer M.; Stucki P.; Franke J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	1395
结束页码	1409
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	Historians and historical climatologists have long pointed to an increased flood frequency in central Europe in the mid- and late 19th century. However, the causes have remained unclear. Here, we investigate the changes in flood frequency in Switzerland based on long time series of discharge and lake levels, precipitation, and weather types and based on climate model simulations, focusing on the warm season. Annual series of peak discharge or maximum lake level, in agreement with previous studies, display increased frequency of floods in the mid-19th century and decreased frequency after the Second World War. Annual series of warm-season mean precipitation and high percentiles of 3d precipitation totals (partly) reflect these changes. A daily weather type classification since 1763 is used to construct flood probability indices for the catchments of the Rhine in Basel and the outflow of Lake Lugano, Ponte Tresa. The indices indicate an increased frequency of flood-prone weather types in the mid-19th century and a decreased frequency in the post-war period, consistent with a climate reconstruction that shows increased (decreased) cyclonic flow over western Europe in the former (latter) period. To assess the driving factors of the detected circulation changes, we analyze weather types and precipitation in a large ensemble of atmospheric model simulations driven with observed sea-surface temperatures. In the simulations, we do not find an increase in flood-prone weather types in the Rhine catchment in the 19th century but a decrease in the post-war period that could have been related to sea-surface temperature anomalies. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric modeling; catchment; climate modeling; climate variation; discharge; flood frequency; historical perspective; lake level; nineteenth century; precipitation (chemistry); Basel; Basel-Stadt; Lake Lugano; Switzerland
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146793
作者单位	Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Geneva, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brönnimann S.,Frigerio L.,Schwander M.,et al. Causes of increased flood frequency in central Europe in the 19th century[J],2019,15(4).
APA	Brönnimann S.,Frigerio L.,Schwander M.,Rohrer M.,Stucki P.,&Franke J..(2019).Causes of increased flood frequency in central Europe in the 19th century.Climate of the Past,15(4).
MLA	Brönnimann S.,et al."Causes of increased flood frequency in central Europe in the 19th century".Climate of the Past 15.4(2019).