气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models

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DOI	10.5194/cp-16-79-2020
	South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models
	Flores-Aqueveque V.; Rojas M.; Aguirre C.; Arias P.A.; González C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	79
结束页码	99
卷号	16 期号:1
英文摘要	The South Pacific Subtropical High (SPSH) is a predominant feature of the South American climate. The variability of this high-pressure center induces changes in the intensity of coastal alongshore winds and precipitation, among others, over southwestern South America. In recent decades, strengthening and expansion of the SPSH have been observed and attributed to the current global warming. These changes have led to an intensification of the southerly winds along the coast of northern to central Chile and a decrease in precipitation from central to southern Chile. Motivated by improving our understanding about the regional impacts of climate change in this part of the Southern Hemisphere, we analyzed SPSH changes during the two most extreme climate events of the last millennium, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP: 1970-2000), based on paleoclimate records and CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations. In order to assess the level of agreement of general circulation models, we also compare them with ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the 1979-2009 period as a complementary analysis. Finally, with the aim of evaluating future SPSH behavior, we include 21st century projections under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario in our analyses. Our results indicate that during the relative warm (cold) period, the SPSH expands (contracts). Together with this change, alongshore winds intensify (weaken) south (north) of ∼ 35° S; also, southern westerly winds become stronger (weaker) and shift southward (northward). Model results generally underestimate reanalysis data. These changes are in good agreement with paleoclimate records, which suggest that these variations could be related to tropical climate dynamics but also to extratropical phenomena. However, although models adequately represent most of the South American climate changes, they fail to represent the Intertropical Convergence Zone-Hadley cell system dynamics, emphasizing the importance of improving tropical system dynamics in simulations for a better understanding of its effects on South America. Climate model projections indicate that changes recently observed will continue during the next decades, highlighting the need to establish effective mitigation and adaptation strategies against their environmental and socioeconomic impacts. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; general circulation model; Holocene; Little Ice Age; paleoclimate; proxy climate record; twenty first century; Chile; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (South); South America
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146756
作者单位	Departamento de Geología, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Plaza Ercilla 803, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile; Millennium Nuclei for Paleoclimate, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2 FONDAP 15110009), Chile; Escuela de Ingeniería Civil Oceánica, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Observación Marino para estudios de Riesgos del Ambiente Costero (COSTA-R), Valparaíso, Chile; Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Flores-Aqueveque V.,Rojas M.,Aguirre C.,et al. South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models[J],2020,16(1).
APA	Flores-Aqueveque V.,Rojas M.,Aguirre C.,Arias P.A.,&González C..(2020).South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models.Climate of the Past,16(1).
MLA	Flores-Aqueveque V.,et al."South Pacific Subtropical High from the late Holocene to the end of the 21st century: insights from climate proxies and general circulation models".Climate of the Past 16.1(2020).