气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium

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DOI	10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020
	Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium
	Lyu Z.; Orsi A.J.; Goosse H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	1411
结束页码	1428
卷号	16 期号:4
英文摘要	The reconstructed surface-temperature time series from boreholes in Antarctica have significantly contributed to our understanding of multidecadal and centennial temperature changes and thus provide a good way to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce low-frequency climate variability. However, up to now, there has not been any systematic model-data comparison based on temperature from boreholes at a regional or local scale in Antarctica. Here, we discuss two different ways to perform such a comparison using borehole measurements and the corresponding reconstructions of surface temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide, Larissa, Mill Island, and Styx Glacier in Antarctica. The standard approach is to compare the surface temperature simulated by the climate model at the grid cell closest to each site with the reconstructions in the time domain derived from the borehole temperature observations. Although some characteristics of the reconstructions, for instance the nonuniform smoothing, limit to some extent the model-data comparison, several robust features can be evaluated. In addition, a more direct model-data comparison based on the temperature measured in the boreholes is conducted using a forward model that simulates explicitly the subsurface temperature profiles when driven with climate model outputs. This comparison in the depth domain is not only generally consistent with observations made in the time domain but also provides information that cannot easily be inferred from the comparison in the time domain. The major results from these comparisons are used to derive metrics that can be applied for future model-data comparison. We also describe the spatial representativity of the sites chosen for the metrics. The long-term cooling trend in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE (-1:0 °C) is generally reproduced by the models but often with a weaker amplitude. The 19th century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (-0:94 °C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead. The trend over the last 50 years is generally well reproduced in West Antarctica and at Larissa (Antarctic Peninsula) but overestimated at other sites. The wide range of simulated trends indicates the importance of internal variability in the observed trends and shows the value of model-data comparison to investigate the response to forcings. © 2020 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Antarctic Ecozone; borehole; climate modeling; climate variation; computer simulation; forward modeling; geothermal energy; paleoclimate; paleoenvironment; proxy climate record; Styx
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146687
作者单位	Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Place Louis Pasteur, Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348, Belgium; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (IPSL/CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Umr 8212), Cea Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, 91191, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lyu Z.,Orsi A.J.,Goosse H.. Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium[J],2020,16(4).
APA	Lyu Z.,Orsi A.J.,&Goosse H..(2020).Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium.Climate of the Past,16(4).
MLA	Lyu Z.,et al."Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium".Climate of the Past 16.4(2020).