Climate Change Data Portal
DOI | 10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020 |
An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations | |
Beyer R.; Krapp M.; Manica A. | |
发表日期 | 2020 |
ISSN | 18149324 |
起始页码 | 1493 |
结束页码 | 1508 |
卷号 | 16期号:4 |
英文摘要 | Even the most sophisticated global climate models are known to have significant biases in the way they simulate the climate system. Correcting model biases is therefore an essential step towards realistic palaeoclimatologies, which are important for many applications such as modelling long-term ecological dynamics. Here, we evaluate three widely used bias correction methods the delta method, generalised additive models (GAMs), and quantile mapping against a large global dataset of empirical temperature and precipitation records from the present, the mid-Holocene (∼6000 years BP), the Last Glacial Maximum (∼ 21000 years BP), and the last interglacial period (∼ 125000 years BP). In most cases, the differences between the bias reductions achieved by the three methods are small. Overall, the delta method performs slightly better, albeit not always to a statistically significant degree, at minimising the median absolute bias between empirical data and debiased simulations for both temperature and precipitation than GAMs and quantile mapping; however, there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in the performance of each of the three methods. Our data also indicate that it could soon be possible to use empirical reconstructions of past climatic conditions not only for the evaluation of bias correction methods but for fitting statistical relationships between empirical and simulated data through time that can inform more effective bias correction methods. © Author(s) 2020. |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | climate modeling; climate variation; correction; empirical analysis; global climate; Holocene; Last Glacial Maximum; paleoclimate; precipitation (climatology); sampling bias; temperature |
来源期刊 | Climate of the Past
![]() |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146684 |
作者单位 | Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Beyer R.,Krapp M.,Manica A.. An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations[J],2020,16(4). |
APA | Beyer R.,Krapp M.,&Manica A..(2020).An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations.Climate of the Past,16(4). |
MLA | Beyer R.,et al."An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations".Climate of the Past 16.4(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。