气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/cp-16-1493-2020
	An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations
	Beyer R.; Krapp M.; Manica A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	1493
结束页码	1508
卷号	16 期号:4
英文摘要	Even the most sophisticated global climate models are known to have significant biases in the way they simulate the climate system. Correcting model biases is therefore an essential step towards realistic palaeoclimatologies, which are important for many applications such as modelling long-term ecological dynamics. Here, we evaluate three widely used bias correction methods the delta method, generalised additive models (GAMs), and quantile mapping against a large global dataset of empirical temperature and precipitation records from the present, the mid-Holocene (∼6000 years BP), the Last Glacial Maximum (∼ 21000 years BP), and the last interglacial period (∼ 125000 years BP). In most cases, the differences between the bias reductions achieved by the three methods are small. Overall, the delta method performs slightly better, albeit not always to a statistically significant degree, at minimising the median absolute bias between empirical data and debiased simulations for both temperature and precipitation than GAMs and quantile mapping; however, there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in the performance of each of the three methods. Our data also indicate that it could soon be possible to use empirical reconstructions of past climatic conditions not only for the evaluation of bias correction methods but for fitting statistical relationships between empirical and simulated data through time that can inform more effective bias correction methods. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate variation; correction; empirical analysis; global climate; Holocene; Last Glacial Maximum; paleoclimate; precipitation (climatology); sampling bias; temperature
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146684
作者单位	Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beyer R.,Krapp M.,Manica A.. An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations[J],2020,16(4).
APA	Beyer R.,Krapp M.,&Manica A..(2020).An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations.Climate of the Past,16(4).
MLA	Beyer R.,et al."An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations".Climate of the Past 16.4(2020).