气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020
	Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models
	Brown J.R.; Brierley C.M.; An S.-I.; Guarino M.-V.; Stevenson S.; Williams C.J.R.; Zhang Q.; Zhao A.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Braconnot P.; Brady E.C.; Chandan D.; D'Agostino R.; Guo C.; Legrande A.N.; Lohmann G.; Morozova P.A.; Ohgaito R.; O'Ishi R.; Otto-Bliesner B.L.; Richard Peltier W.; Shi X.; Sime L.; Volodin E.M.; Zhang Z.; Zheng W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	1777
结束页码	1805
卷号	16 期号:5
英文摘要	El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments. © 2020 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual cycle; climate modeling; climate variation; CMIP; comparative study; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; future prospect; Holocene; Last Glacial Maximum; Last Interglacial; paleoclimate; sea surface temperature; sensitivity analysis; simulation; Pacific Ocean
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146669
作者单位	School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Department of Geography, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; British Antarctic Survey, High Cross Madingley Road, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Bren School of Environmental Sciences and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, P.O. Box 243, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement-IPSL, Unite Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Bo...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brown J.R.,Brierley C.M.,An S.-I.,et al. Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models[J],2020,16(5).
APA	Brown J.R..,Brierley C.M..,An S.-I..,Guarino M.-V..,Stevenson S..,...&Zheng W..(2020).Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models.Climate of the Past,16(5).
MLA	Brown J.R.,et al."Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models".Climate of the Past 16.5(2020).