气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020
	The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
	Haywood A.M.; Tindall J.C.; Dowsett H.J.; Dolan A.M.; Foley K.M.; Hunter S.J.; Hill D.J.; Chan W.-L.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Stepanek C.; Lohmann G.; Chandan D.; Richard Peltier W.; Tan N.; Contoux C.; Ramstein G.; Li X.; Zhang Z.; Guo C.; Nisancioglu K.H.; Zhang Q.; Li Q.; Kamae Y.; Chandler M.A.; Sohl L.E.; Otto-Bliesner B.L.; Feng R.; Brady E.C.; Von Der Heydt A.S.; Baatsen M.L.J.; Lunt D.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	18149324
起始页码	2095
结束页码	2123
卷号	16 期号:6
英文摘要	The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ~ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 °C over land and 2.8 ° C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60° N and 60° S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8 °C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; amplification; boundary condition; complexity; estimation method; ice sheet; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; proxy climate record; sea surface temperature; sensitivity analysis; spatial resolution; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean; Pacific Ocean
来源期刊	Climate of the Past
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146655
作者单位	School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, West Yorkshire, LS29JT, United Kingdom; Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, United States; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, 277-8564, Japan; Alfred-Wegener-Institut-Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar and Meeresforschung (AWI), Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany; Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, M5S 1A7, Canada; Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Norce Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, 5007, Norway; Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China Univer...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haywood A.M.,Tindall J.C.,Dowsett H.J.,et al. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity[J],2020,16(6).
APA	Haywood A.M..,Tindall J.C..,Dowsett H.J..,Dolan A.M..,Foley K.M..,...&Lunt D.J..(2020).The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity.Climate of the Past,16(6).
MLA	Haywood A.M.,et al."The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity".Climate of the Past 16.6(2020).