气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4181-8
	Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects
	Fernández J.; Frías M.D.; Cabos W.D.; Cofiño A.S.; Domínguez M.; Fita L.; Gaertner M.A.; García-Díez M.; Gutiérrez J.M.; Jiménez-Guerrero P.; Liguori G.; Montávez J.P.; Romera R.; Sánchez E.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1139
结束页码	1156
卷号	52 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021–2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM–RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CORDEX; ENSEMBLES; ESCENA; Near surface temperature; precipitation; Regional climate change
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; global climate; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; surface temperature
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146604
作者单位	Grupo de Meteorología y Computación, Dpto. Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de los Castros, s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain; Dpto. Física y Matemática, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, 28805, Spain; Predictia Intelligent Data Solutions, Santander, 39005, Spain; Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, Toledo, 45071, Spain; Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, CNRS UMI-IFAECI, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Grupo de Meteorología, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de los Castros, s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain; Dpto. Física, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Mare Nostrum, Universidad de Murcia, Murcia, 30100, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fernández J.,Frías M.D.,Cabos W.D.,et al. Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects[J],2019,52(2020-01-02).
APA	Fernández J..,Frías M.D..,Cabos W.D..,Cofiño A.S..,Domínguez M..,...&Sánchez E..(2019).Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-01-02).
MLA	Fernández J.,et al."Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-01-02(2019).