气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4188-1
	Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches
	Crimp S.; Jin H.; Kokic P.; Bakar S.; Nicholls N.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1247
结束页码	1262
卷号	52 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Anthropogenic climate change has already been shown to effect the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and seasonality of extreme climate events. Understanding these changes is an important step in determining exposure, vulnerability and focus for adaptation. In an attempt to support adaptation decision-making we have examined statistical modelling techniques to improve the representation of global climate model (GCM) derived projections of minimum temperature extremes (frosts) in Australia. We examine the spatial changes in minimum temperature extreme metrics (e.g. monthly and seasonal frost frequency etc.), for a region exhibiting the strongest station trends in Australia, and compare these changes with minimum temperature extreme metrics derived from 10 GCMs, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) datasets, and via statistical downscaling. We compare the observed trends with those derived from the “raw” GCM minimum temperature data as well as examine whether quantile matching (QM) or spatio-temporal (spTimerQM) modelling with Quantile Matching can be used to improve the correlation between observed and simulated extreme minimum temperatures. We demonstrate, that the spTimerQM modelling approach provides correlations with observed daily minimum temperatures for the period August to November of 0.22. This represents an almost fourfold improvement over either the “raw” GCM or QM results. The spTimerQM modelling approach also improves correlations with observed monthly frost frequency statistics to 0.84 as opposed to 0.37 and 0.81 for the “raw” GCM and QM results respectively. We apply the spatio-temporal model to examine future extreme minimum temperature projections for the period 2016 to 2048. The spTimerQM modelling results suggest the persistence of current levels of frost risk out to 2030, with the evidence of continuing decadal variation. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Daily minimum temperatures; Frost; Future projections; Quantile matching; Spatio-temporal modelling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; decadal variation; extreme event; frost; future prospect; global climate; seasonality; Australia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146596
作者单位	Climate Change Institute, Australian National University, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; CSIRO DATA61ACT, Australia; Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; CSR&M, Australian National UniversityACT, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Crimp S.,Jin H.,Kokic P.,et al. Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches[J],2019,52(2020-01-02).
APA	Crimp S.,Jin H.,Kokic P.,Bakar S.,&Nicholls N..(2019).Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-01-02).
MLA	Crimp S.,et al."Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-01-02(2019).