气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
	Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe
	Vautard R.; Christidis N.; Ciavarella A.; Alvarez-Castro C.; Bellprat O.; Christiansen B.; Colfescu I.; Cowan T.; Doblas-Reyes F.; Eden J.; Hauser M.; Hegerl G.; Hempelmann N.; Klehmet K.; Lott F.; Nangini C.; Orth R.; Radanovics S.; Seneviratne S.I.; van Oldenborgh G.J.; Stott P.; Tett S.; Wilcox L.; Yiou P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1187
结束页码	1210
卷号	52 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land–atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; anthropogenic effect; atmospheric modeling; computer simulation; extreme event; precipitation assessment; storm surge; Europe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146588
作者单位	Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, France; UK Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Eh9 3jw, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, P. O. Box 243, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vautard R.,Christidis N.,Ciavarella A.,et al. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe[J],2019,52(2020-01-02).
APA	Vautard R..,Christidis N..,Ciavarella A..,Alvarez-Castro C..,Bellprat O..,...&Yiou P..(2019).Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-01-02).
MLA	Vautard R.,et al."Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-01-02(2019).