气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4178-3
	Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs
	Stryhal J.; Huth R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1063
结束页码	1075
卷号	52 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulation—expected in future at global scale—is apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Atmospheric circulation; Circulation classifications; CMIP5; Global climate models; Projections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric circulation; atmospheric general circulation model; climate modeling; CMIP; global climate; trend analysis; twenty first century; westerly; winter; zonal flow; Central Europe; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146583
作者单位	Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, Prague 2, 128 43, Czech Republic; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II, Prague 4, 141 31, Czech Republic
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stryhal J.,Huth R.. Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs[J],2019,52(2020-01-02).
APA	Stryhal J.,&Huth R..(2019).Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-01-02).
MLA	Stryhal J.,et al."Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-01-02(2019).