气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4225-0
	Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models
	Zaninelli P.G.; Menéndez C.G.; Falco M.; López-Franca N.; Carril A.F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	819
结束页码	830
卷号	52 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Changes between two time slices (1961–1990 and 2071–2100) in hydroclimatological conditions for South America have been examined using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual mean precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E P ) are jointly considered through the balances of land water and energy. Drying or wetting conditions, associated with changes in land water availability and atmospheric demand, are analysed in the Budyko space. The water supply limit (E limited by P) is exceeded at about 2% of the grid points, while the energy limit to evapotranspiration (E = E P ) is overall valid. Most of the continent, except for the southeast and some coastal areas, presents a shift toward drier conditions related to a decrease in water availability (the evaporation rate E/P increases) and, mostly over much of Brazil, to an increase in the aridity index (Ф = E P /P). These changes suggest less humid conditions with decreasing surface runoff over Amazonia and the Brazilian Highlands. In contrast, Argentina and the coasts of Ecuador and Peru are characterized by a tendency toward wetter conditions associated with an increase of water availability and a decrease of aridity index, primarily due to P increasing faster than both E and E P . This trend towards wetter soil conditions suggest that the chances of having larger periods of flooding and enhanced river discharges would increase over parts of southeastern South America. Interannual variability increases with Ф (for a given time slice) and with climate change (for a given aridity regimen). There are opposite interannual variability responses to the cliamte change in Argentina and Brazil by which the variability increases over the Brazilian Highlands and decreases in central-eastern Argentina. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Aridity index; Budyko space; Climate change; Hydroclimate of South America; Regional climate models
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aridity; climate change; climate conditions; climate modeling; energy balance; future prospect; potential evapotranspiration; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; water budget; Amazonia; Argentina; Brazil; Ecuador; Peru
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146581
作者单位	Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA), CONICET, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Pabellon 2, Piso 2, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires, 1428, Argentina; Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos (UMI3351-IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina; Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zaninelli P.G.,Menéndez C.G.,Falco M.,et al. Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models[J],2019,52(2020-01-02).
APA	Zaninelli P.G.,Menéndez C.G.,Falco M.,López-Franca N.,&Carril A.F..(2019).Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-01-02).
MLA	Zaninelli P.G.,et al."Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-01-02(2019).