气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of the empirical

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4276-2
	Evaluation of the empirical–statistical downscaling method EPISODES
	Kreienkamp F.; Paxian A.; Früh B.; Lorenz P.; Matulla C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	991
结束页码	1026
卷号	52 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	A comprehensive performance assessment of the empirical–statistical downscaling (ESD) technique named EPISODES is presented. Pertaining evaluation analyses consist of multifarious validation experiments as well as various comparisons of EPISODES’ projections with those of three RCMs and two ESD methods based on the same GCM scenarios driven by two distinct representative concentration pathways (RCPs). EPISODES combines the downscaling of GCM simulations with a follow-up production of synthetic local time series. EPISODES is a comparably simple, computationally rather inexpensive technique, providing multi-variable and multi-site data that are suitable for being merged in an ensemble of RCM projections. This allows (e.g. for different RCPs) the compilation of large multi member ensembles derived from various GCM simulations via both main downscaling strategies (ESD and RCMs). Evaluation experiments reveal satisfying degrees of compliance between various results generated by EPISODES and observations. The grid cell bias for yearly values, for instance, is mostly less than 0.1∘C for temperature and 10% for precipitation totals. Recorded temperature values and precipitation totals corresponding to their 1st and the 99th percentiles are well represented by EPISODES too. Comparisons of various climate change signals derived by EPISODES and other downscaling approaches, present high levels of agreement as well. Many more findings referring to evaluation experiments and climate change projections are to be found in the paper as well as throughout the “Appendix”. © 2018, The Author(s).
英文关键词	CORDEX; Empirical statistical downscaling; Ensembles; Perfect prognosis; Regional climate modelling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; concentration (composition); empirical analysis; ensemble forecasting; precipitation (climatology); regional climate
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146580
作者单位	Deutscher Wetterdienst, Güterfelder Damm 87-91, Stahnsdorf, 14532, Germany; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Str. 135, Offenbach am Main, 63067, Germany; Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Hohe Warte 38, Wien, 1190, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kreienkamp F.,Paxian A.,Früh B.,等. Evaluation of the empirical–statistical downscaling method EPISODES[J],2019,52(2020-01-02).
APA	Kreienkamp F.,Paxian A.,Früh B.,Lorenz P.,&Matulla C..(2019).Evaluation of the empirical–statistical downscaling method EPISODES.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-01-02).
MLA	Kreienkamp F.,et al."Evaluation of the empirical–statistical downscaling method EPISODES".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-01-02(2019).