气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4205-4
	Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data
	Tran G.T.; Oliver K.I.C.; Holden P.B.; Edwards N.R.; Sóbester A.; Challenor P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1505
结束页码	1531
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Climate model components involve both high-dimensional input and output fields. It is desirable to efficiently generate spatio-temporal outputs of these models for applications in integrated assessment modelling or to assess the statistical relationship between such sets of inputs and outputs, for example, uncertainty analysis. However, the need for efficiency often compromises the fidelity of output through the use of low complexity models. Here, we develop a technique which combines statistical emulation with a dimensionality reduction technique to emulate a wide range of outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model, PLASIM, as functions of the boundary forcing prescribed by the ocean component of a lower complexity climate model, GENIE-1. Although accurate and detailed spatial information on atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind speed is well beyond the capability of GENIE-1’s energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere, this study demonstrates that the output of this model is useful in predicting PLASIM’s spatio-temporal fields through multi-level emulation. Meaningful information from the fast model, GENIE-1 was extracted by utilising the correlation between variables of the same type in the two models and between variables of different types in PLASIM. We present here the construction and validation of several PLASIM variable emulators and discuss their potential use in developing a hybrid model with statistical components. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Intermediate complexity model; Model hierarchy; Multi-level emulators; Probabilistic prediction; Spatio-temporal data
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric forcing; atmospheric general circulation model; climate modeling; input-output analysis; model validation; prediction; spatiotemporal analysis
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146570
作者单位	Ocean and Earth Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, 24105, Germany; Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, United Kingdom; Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO16 7QF, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tran G.T.,Oliver K.I.C.,Holden P.B.,et al. Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Tran G.T.,Oliver K.I.C.,Holden P.B.,Edwards N.R.,Sóbester A.,&Challenor P..(2019).Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Tran G.T.,et al."Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).