气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9
	Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study
	Ferrarini A.; Alsafran M.H.S.A.; Dai J.; Alatalo J.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1413
结束页码	1423
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	British Isles; Climate extremes; Climate-driven niche modelling; Model selection; Parsimonious modelling; Silene acaulis; Variable ranking; Variable selection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	angiosperm; climate change; climate effect; ecological modeling; extreme event; niche; population distribution; ranking; United Kingdom; Silene acaulis
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146562
作者单位	Via G. Saragat 4, Parma, I-43123, Italy; Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, P.O. Box 2713, Doha, Qatar; Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ferrarini A.,Alsafran M.H.S.A.,Dai J.,et al. Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Ferrarini A.,Alsafran M.H.S.A.,Dai J.,&Alatalo J.M..(2019).Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Ferrarini A.,et al."Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).