气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4238-8
	Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models
	Akinsanola A.A.; Zhou W.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2017
结束页码	2028
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976–2005, future changes (2070–2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Ensemble; Evaluation and future projection; Extreme precipitation; Regional climate model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric modeling; climate change; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; global warming; monsoon; rainfall; regional climate; summer
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146555
作者单位	Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Akinsanola A.A.,Zhou W.. Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Akinsanola A.A.,&Zhou W..(2019).Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Akinsanola A.A.,et al."Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).