气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4221-4
	Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events
	Seo E.; Lee M.-I.; Jeong J.-H.; Koster R.D.; Schubert S.D.; Kim H.-M.; Kim D.; Kang H.-S.; Kim H.-K.; MacLachlan C.; Scaife A.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1695
结束页码	1709
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	This study uses a global land–atmosphere coupled model, the land–atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996–2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land–atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; atmosphere-biosphere interaction; boundary condition; forecasting method; heat wave; hindcasting; sea surface temperature; soil moisture; summer; Europe; Russian Federation
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146553
作者单位	School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, South Korea; Faculty of Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea; Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Seo E.,Lee M.-I.,Jeong J.-H.,et al. Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Seo E..,Lee M.-I..,Jeong J.-H..,Koster R.D..,Schubert S.D..,...&Scaife A.A..(2019).Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Seo E.,et al."Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).