气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4256-6
	Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China
	Liang P.; Hu Z.-Z.; Liu Y.; Yuan X.; Li X.; Jiang X.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2217
结束页码	2233
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	To demonstrate the challenge of summer rainfall prediction and simulation in the eastern China, in this work, we examine the skill of the state-of-the-art climate models, evaluate the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on forecast skill and estimate the predictability by using perfect model approach. The challenge is further demonstrated by assessing the ability of various reanalyses in capturing the observed summer rainfall variability in the eastern China and by examining the biases in reanalyses and in a climate model. Summer rainfall forecasts (hindcasts) initiated in May from eight seasonal forecast systems have low forecast skill with linear correlation of − 0.3 to 0.5 with observations. The low forecast skill is consistent with the low perfect model score (~ 0.1–0.3) of atmospheric model forced by observed SST, due to the fact that external forcing (SST) may play a secondary role in the summer rainfall variation in the eastern China. This is a common feature for the climate variation over the middle and high latitude lands, where the internal dynamical processes dominate the rainfall variation in the eastern China and lead to low predictability, and external forcing (such as SST) plays a secondary role and is associated with predictable fraction. Even the reanalysis rainfall has some remarkable disagreements with the observation. Statistically, more than 20% of the observed variance is not captured by the mean of six reanalyses. Among the reanalyses, JRA55 stands out as the most reliable one. In addition, the reanalyses and climate model have pronounced biases in simulating the mean rainfall. These defaults mean an additional challenge in predicting the summer rainfall variability in the eastern China that has low predictability in nature. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Eastern China; Internal variability and SST forcing; Model and reanalysis biases; Perfect model skill; Summer rainfall forecast
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate prediction; forecasting method; rainfall; sea surface temperature; summer; China
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146542
作者单位	Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai, 200030, China; Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, United States; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310027, China; Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang P.,Hu Z.-Z.,Liu Y.,et al. Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Liang P.,Hu Z.-Z.,Liu Y.,Yuan X.,Li X.,&Jiang X..(2019).Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Liang P.,et al."Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).