气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A new scheme for multivariate; multisite weather generator with inter-variable; inter-site dependence and inter-annual variability based on empirical copula approach

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4249-5
	A new scheme for multivariate; multisite weather generator with inter-variable; inter-site dependence and inter-annual variability based on empirical copula approach
	Li X.; Babovic V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2247
结束页码	2267
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Weather generators (WGs) are often used to develop an ensemble of plausible climate scenarios across multiple spatial and temporal scales for vulnerability assessment and impact studies. Most of the conventional WGs are single-site models, which neglect the spatial dependence in the simulated meteorological field, are improper for regional impact studies. In recent several decades, efforts have been devoted to develop multivariate, multisite weather generators (MMWGs), which are able to reproduce the inter-variable and inter-site dependencies as well as the temporal structures observed in the historical records. Though several improvements have been achieved, the existed MMWGs are either conceptually complex or computationally expensive, and have difficulty in preserving the entire desired attributes. This study proposes a new two-stage scheme for constructing a MMWG. At the first stage, the meteorological series are simulated from a single-site multivariate weather generator (SMWG), which preserves the marginal distributional attributes for each meteorological variable. For the second stage, the inter-variable and inter-site dependencies as well as the temporal structures are reproduced using the Empirical Copula (EC) approach. An application of the proposed MMWG is presented for the Upper Thames River Catchment, Canada, and the performance is evaluated and compared with another two-stage MMWG based on the Iman shuffle approach. Results show that the proposed MMWG not only preserves the marginal distributional attributes, but also restores the inter-variable and inter-site dependencies, the temporal persistence, and the inter-annual variability almost perfectly. The performance of the proposed MMWG outperforms the one based on the Iman shuffle approach in terms of reconstruction of temporal persistence and inter-annual variability, as well as the reproduction of multivariate dependencies. Being conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, the proposed scheme based on the EC approach is well suited for developing ensemble-based climate scenarios for vulnerability assessment and impact studies. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Empirical copula; Inter-annual variability; Inter-variable dependence; Multivariate multi-site weather generator; Spatial dependence
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; empirical analysis; ensemble forecasting; multivariate analysis; spatiotemporal analysis; weather forecasting; Canada; Ontario [Canada]; Thames River [Ontario]
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146529
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li X.,Babovic V.. A new scheme for multivariate; multisite weather generator with inter-variable; inter-site dependence and inter-annual variability based on empirical copula approach[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Li X.,&Babovic V..(2019).A new scheme for multivariate; multisite weather generator with inter-variable; inter-site dependence and inter-annual variability based on empirical copula approach.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Li X.,et al."A new scheme for multivariate; multisite weather generator with inter-variable; inter-site dependence and inter-annual variability based on empirical copula approach".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).