气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predictability of the European heat and cold waves

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4273-5
	Predictability of the European heat and cold waves
	Lavaysse C.; Naumann G.; Alfieri L.; Salamon P.; Vogt J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2481
结束页码	2495
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Heat and cold waves may have considerable human and economic impacts in Europe. Recent events, like the heat waves observed in France in 2003 and Russia in 2010, illustrated the major consequences to be expected. Reliable Early Warning Systems for extreme temperatures would, therefore, be of high value for decision makers. However, they require a clear definition and robust forecasts of these events. This study analyzes the predictability of heat and cold waves over Europe, defined as at least three consecutive days of T min and T max above the quantile Q90 (under Q10), using the extended ensemble system of ECMWF. The results show significant predictability for events within a 2-week lead time, but with a strong decrease of the predictability during the first week of forecasts (from 80 to 40% of observed events correctly forecasted). The scores show a higher predictive skill for the cold waves (in winter) than for the heat waves (in summer). The uncertainties and the sensitivities of the predictability are discussed on the basis of tests conducted with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Results demonstrate the negligible effect of the temporal resolution (very few errors due to bad timing of the forecasts), and a better predictability of large-scale events. The onset and the end of the waves are slightly less predictable with an average of about 35% (30%) of observed heat (cold) waves onsets or ends correctly forecasted with a 5-day lead time. Finally, the forecasted intensities show a correlation of about 0.65 with those observed, revealing the challenge to predict this important characteristic. © 2018, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Cold waves; Ensemble forecasts; Heat waves; Predictability; Validation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; cold wave; ensemble forecasting; heat wave; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis; Europe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146518
作者单位	European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, VA 21027, Italy; University of Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lavaysse C.,Naumann G.,Alfieri L.,et al. Predictability of the European heat and cold waves[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Lavaysse C.,Naumann G.,Alfieri L.,Salamon P.,&Vogt J..(2019).Predictability of the European heat and cold waves.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Lavaysse C.,et al."Predictability of the European heat and cold waves".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).