气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4399-5
	Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads
	Ren D.; Dickinson R.E.; Fu R.; Bornman J.F.; Guo W.; Yang S.; Leslie L.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1711
结束页码	1721
卷号	52 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	The increasing importance of aviation activities in modern life coincides with a steady warming climate. However, the effect of climate warming on maximum aircraft carrying capacity or payload has been unclear. Here we clarify this issue using primary atmospheric parameters from 27 fully coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive, utilizing the direct proportionality of near-surface air density (NSAD) to maximum take-off total weight (MTOW). Historical (twentieth century) runs of these climate models showed high credibility in reproducing the reanalysis period (1950–2015) of NSAD. In particular, the model simulated trends in NSAD are highly aligned with the reanalysis values. This reduction in NSAD is a first order global signal, just as is the warming itself, that continues into the future. To examine the statistical significance of the density reduction, a t-test was performed for two 20-year periods 75 years apart (2080–2100 vs. 2005–2025), using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Most continental areas easily passed the test at a P-value of 0.05. These future changes of NSAD will likely have significant economic impacts on the aviation industry. For these two 20-year periods that we examined, the most extreme changes are in the Northern hemisphere in high latitudes, i.e., a 5% decrease in MTOW, or ~ 8.5–19% (aircraft-dependent) reduction in payload. The global average change is about 1%. For the busy North Atlantic Corridor (NAC), the reduction in MTOW is generally greater than 1% and that of payload several times larger. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; CMIP; global warming; Northern Hemisphere; parameterization; trend analysis
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146514
作者单位	School of Electrical Engineering, Computing and Mathematical Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, Australia; Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, United States; JPL, UCLA, Pasadena, United States; Curtin Business School, Curtin University, Perth, Australia; School of Veterinary & Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Guangzhou, China; School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ren D.,Dickinson R.E.,Fu R.,et al. Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads[J],2019,52(2020-03-04).
APA	Ren D..,Dickinson R.E..,Fu R..,Bornman J.F..,Guo W..,...&Leslie L.M..(2019).Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-03-04).
MLA	Ren D.,et al."Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-03-04(2019).