气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4286-0
	Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?
	He C.; Li T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2667
结束页码	2684
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	Based on the outputs of 30 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the fractional changes in the amplitude interannual variability (σ) for precipitation (P′) and vertical velocity (ω′) are assessed, and simple theoretical models are constructed to quantitatively understand the changes in σ(P′) and σ(ω′). Both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios show similar results in term of the fractional change per degree of warming, with slightly lower inter-model uncertainty under RCP8.5. Based on the multi-model median, σ(P′) generally increases but σ(ω′) generally decreases under global warming but both are characterized by non-uniform spatial patterns. The σ(P′) decrease over subtropical subsidence regions but increase elsewhere, with a regional averaged value of 1.4% K − 1 over 20°S–50°N under RCP8.5. Diagnoses show that the mechanisms for the change in σ(P′) are different for climatological ascending and descending regions. Over ascending regions, the increase of mean state specific humidity contributes to a general increase of σ(P′) but the change of σ(ω′) dominates its spatial pattern and inter-model uncertainty. But over descending regions, the change of σ(P′) and its inter-model uncertainty are constrained by the change of mean state precipitation. The σ(ω′) is projected to be weakened almost everywhere except over equatorial Pacific, with a regional averaged fractional change of − 3.4% K − 1 at 500 hPa. The overall reduction of σ(ω′) results from the increased mean state static stability, while the substantially increased σ(ω′) at the mid-upper troposphere over equatorial Pacific and the inter-model uncertainty of the changes in σ(ω′) are dominated by the change in the interannual variability of diabatic heating. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Global warming; Interannual variability; Precipitation; Vertical velocity
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; climate variation; diabatic process; global warming; heating; precipitation (climatology); troposphere; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146499
作者单位	Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He C.,Li T.. Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	He C.,&Li T..(2019).Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	He C.,et al."Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).