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| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4281-5 |
| Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China | |
| Thompson V.; Dunstone N.J.; Scaife A.A.; Smith D.M.; Hardiman S.C.; Ren H.-L.; Lu B.; Belcher S.E. | |
| 发表日期 | 2019 |
| ISSN | 0930-7575 |
| 起始页码 | 2585 |
| 结束页码 | 2596 |
| 卷号 | 52期号:2020-05-06 |
| 英文摘要 | The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio–economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the current chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high. © 2018, © Crown. |
| 英文关键词 | China; Climate risks; Hot summers; Silk Road Pattern; Unprecedented extremes |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | atmospheric wave; climate modeling; computer simulation; extreme event; monsoon; seasonal variation; socioeconomic impact; China |
| 来源期刊 | Climate Dynamics
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146496 |
| 作者单位 | Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; Laboratory for Climate Studies & CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental studies, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan, China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thompson V.,Dunstone N.J.,Scaife A.A.,et al. Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China[J],2019,52(2020-05-06). |
| APA | Thompson V..,Dunstone N.J..,Scaife A.A..,Smith D.M..,Hardiman S.C..,...&Belcher S.E..(2019).Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06). |
| MLA | Thompson V.,et al."Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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