气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Niño Southern Oscillation

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4313-1
	On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Niño Southern Oscillation
	Izumo T.; Lengaigne M.; Vialard J.; Suresh I.; Planton Y.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2923
结束页码	2942
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	The Warm Water Volume (WWV), a proxy for the equatorial Pacific heat content, is the most widely used oceanic precursor of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The standard interpretation of this lead relation in the context of the recharge oscillator theory is that anomalous easterlies during, e.g. La Niña, favour a slow recharge of the equatorial band that will later favour a transition to El Niño. Here we demonstrate that WWV only works as the best ENSO predictor during boreal spring, i.e. during ENSO onset, in both observations and CMIP5 models. At longer lead times, the heat content in the western Pacific (WWV W ) is the best ENSO predictor, as initially formulated in the recharge oscillator theory. Using idealised and realistic experiments with a linear continuously stratified ocean model, and a comprehensive wave decomposition method, we demonstrate that spring WWV mostly reflects the fast Kelvin wave response to wind anomalies early in the year, rather than the longer-term influence of winds during the previous year. WWV is hence not an adequate index of the slow recharge invoked in the recharge oscillator. The WWV W evolution before spring is dominated by forced Rossby waves, with a smaller contribution from the western boundary reflection. WWV W can be approximated from the integral of equatorial wind stress over the previous ~ 10 months, thus involving a longer-term time scale than WWV main time scale (~ 3 months). We hence recommend using WWV W rather than WWV as an index for the slow recharge before the spring predictability barrier. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CMIP5 climate models; El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); ENSO conceptual models; ENSO precursors; ENSO recharge oscillator; Equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves; Warm Water Volume (WWV)
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; climate modeling; conceptual framework; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; equatorial wave; Kelvin wave; Rossby wave; timescale; volume; warm water; weather forecasting; wind stress; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial); Pacific Ocean (West)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146476
作者单位	LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Université (UPMC, Université Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France; Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, IISc-NIO-IITM-IRD Joint International Laboratory, CSIR-NIO, Goa, India; CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Izumo T.,Lengaigne M.,Vialard J.,et al. On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Niño Southern Oscillation[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	Izumo T.,Lengaigne M.,Vialard J.,Suresh I.,&Planton Y..(2019).On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Niño Southern Oscillation.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	Izumo T.,et al."On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Niño Southern Oscillation".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).