气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analysis of return periods and return levels of Yearly July–September extreme droughts in the West African Sahel

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4336-7
	Analysis of return periods and return levels of Yearly July–September extreme droughts in the West African Sahel
	Chamani R.; Monkam D.; Djomou Z.Y.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3421
结束页码	3433
卷号	52 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	This paper aims to model the occurrence of Yearly July–September (YJAS) extreme droughts in the West African Sahel (WAS) and to estimate return periods and return levels of these events through stationary peaks-over-threshold model. For this purpose, the historical gridded monthly rainfall data from Climatic Research Unit for the period 1901–2009 were used. The results show that return levels of YJAS dry extremes have increased since 1970, implying that YJAS extreme droughts are consistently more severe after 1970 than they were before. Approximately 62 % of the WAS area in the postchange period of 1971–2009 was dominated by dry spells not longer than 1 year. The dynamics of the YJAS extremes drying trend indicate that the changes at the tails of YJAS dry extreme distribution have contributed to the dry trend in mean YJAS rainfall in the WAS. The estimated 40-year return level of these events based on 1971–2009 period was less than the average of dry extremes of the same period, suggesting that droughts could intensify in the future even though with some amelioration. Such a finding could prove helpful in anticipation of climate risks in this region where adaptive capacities are very low. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Extreme droughts; Peaks-over-threshold; Return levels; Return periods; West African Sahel
语种	英语
scopus关键词	drought; extreme event; return period; trend analysis; West Africa
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146460
作者单位	Laboratory of Fundamental Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Douala, P.O. Box 24157, Douala, Cameroon; Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Yaounde I, P.O. Box 812, Yaounde, Cameroon; Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Douala, P.O. Box 24157, Douala, Cameroon; National Institute of Cartography, P.O. Box 157, DRG Yaounde, Cameroon
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chamani R.,Monkam D.,Djomou Z.Y.. Analysis of return periods and return levels of Yearly July–September extreme droughts in the West African Sahel[J],2019,52(2020-05-06).
APA	Chamani R.,Monkam D.,&Djomou Z.Y..(2019).Analysis of return periods and return levels of Yearly July–September extreme droughts in the West African Sahel.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-05-06).
MLA	Chamani R.,et al."Analysis of return periods and return levels of Yearly July–September extreme droughts in the West African Sahel".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-05-06(2019).