气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Abrupt breakdown of the predictability of early season typhoon frequency at the beginning of the twenty-first century

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4350-9
	Abrupt breakdown of the predictability of early season typhoon frequency at the beginning of the twenty-first century
	Wang C.; Wang B.; Wu L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3809
结束页码	3822
卷号	52 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	Maintenance of the anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the Philippine Sea following strong peak El Niño (La Niña) leads to a negative correlation between the pre-winter (October–December) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency in the ensuing early TC season (January–June). This negative lead-lag correlation has established the predictability of the western North Pacific (WNP) TC genesis frequency in the early season. However, little is known about whether this relationship remains steady to date, especially in the context of evolving features of ENSO in recent decades. Here we show that the negative relationship experiences an abrupt breakdown around the early 2000s (1999–2006), which primarily occurs in the southeastern quadrant of the WNP. During the breakdown period, the anomalous anti-cyclone shifts westward to the South China Sea and an anomalous cyclonic circulation occupies the southeastern quadrant of the WNP, causing enhanced TC formation. We further reveal that the westward displacement of the WNP anticyclonic anomaly during 1999–2006 is induced by the westward shift of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated precipitation anomalies during the decaying phase of ENSO, which increases cyclonic circulation and ascending motion while reduces vertical wind shear, and thereby enhances TC formation over the southeastern WNP. The results suggest that the frequent occurrence of decaying ENSO events with SST anomaly center over the central Pacific (CP) accounts for the abrupt breakdown of predictability, and the impacts of ENSO on TC formation in the early TC season are sensitive to the location of the maximum SST anomaly. Distinguishing eastern Pacific (EP) and CP types of ENSO and/or strong and weak ENSO events may help to improve the early season TC genesis forecast over the WNP. The results also have important implications for understanding the future projection of TC changes under global warming scenarios. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	El Nino-Southern Oscillation; global warming; precipitation (climatology); prediction; sea surface temperature; temperature anomaly; tropical cyclone; twenty first century; typhoon; wind shear; Pacific Ocean; Philippine Sea; South China Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146433
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2525 Correa Rd., Honolulu, HI 96822, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang C.,Wang B.,Wu L.. Abrupt breakdown of the predictability of early season typhoon frequency at the beginning of the twenty-first century[J],2019,52(2020-07-08).
APA	Wang C.,Wang B.,&Wu L..(2019).Abrupt breakdown of the predictability of early season typhoon frequency at the beginning of the twenty-first century.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-07-08).
MLA	Wang C.,et al."Abrupt breakdown of the predictability of early season typhoon frequency at the beginning of the twenty-first century".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-07-08(2019).