气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas?

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4385-y
	Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas?
	Lowry D.P.; Morrill C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4407
结束页码	4427
卷号	52 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	Future hydroclimate change is expected to generally follow a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier (WWDD) pattern, yet key uncertainties remain regionally and over land. It has been previously hypothesized that lake levels of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) could map a reverse analog to future hydroclimate changes due to reduction of CO 2 levels at this time. Potential complications to this approach include, however, the confounding effects of factors such as the Laurentide Ice Sheet and lake evaporation changes. Using the ensemble output of six coupled climate models, lake energy and water balance models, an atmospheric moisture budget analysis, and additional CO 2 sensitivity experiments, we assess the effectiveness of the LGM as a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes for a transect from the drylands of North America to southern South America. The model ensemble successfully simulates the general pattern of lower tropical lake levels and higher extratropical lake levels at LGM, matching 82% of the lake proxy records. The greatest model-data mismatch occurs in tropical and extratropical South America, potentially as a result of underestimated changes in temperature and surface evaporation. Thermodynamic processes of the mean circulation best explain the direction of lake changes observed in the proxy record, particularly in the tropics and Pacific coasts of the extratropics, and produce a WWDD pattern. CO 2 forcing alone cannot account for LGM lake level changes, however, as the enhanced cooling from the Laurentide ice sheet appears necessary to generate LGM dry anomalies in the tropics and to deepen anomalies in the extratropics. LGM performance as a reverse analog is regionally dependent as anti-correlation between LGM and future P − E is not uniformly observed across the study domain. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Atmospheric moisture budget; Future climate projections; Lake forward model; Lake status; Precipitation-evaporation; Runoff
语种	英语
scopus关键词	analog model; climate prediction; evaporation; future prospect; Last Glacial Maximum; moisture flux; precipitation assessment; runoff; water budget; North America; South America
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146409
作者单位	School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 6012, New Zealand; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, CO 80305, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lowry D.P.,Morrill C.. Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas?[J],2019,52(2020-07-08).
APA	Lowry D.P.,&Morrill C..(2019).Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas?.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-07-08).
MLA	Lowry D.P.,et al."Is the Last Glacial Maximum a reverse analog for future hydroclimate changes in the Americas?".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-07-08(2019).