气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z
	Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe
	Mishra N.; Prodhomme C.; Guemas V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4207
结束页码	4225
卷号	52 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	There is now a wide range of forecasts and observations of seasonal climatic conditions that can be used across a range of application sectors, including hydrological risk forecasting, planning and management. As we rely more on seasonal climate forecasts, it becomes essential to also assess its quality to ensure its intended use. In this study, we provide the most comprehensive assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation ensemble forecasts of the EUROSIP multi-model forecasting system over Europe. The forecasts from the four individual climate models within the EUROSIP are assessed using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. One equally and two unequally Weighted Multi-Models (WMMs) are also constructed from the individual models, for both climate variables, and their respective forecasts are also assessed. Consistent with existing literature, we find limited seasonal climate prediction skill over Europe. A simple equally WMM system performs better than both unequally WMM combination systems. However, the equally WMM system does not always outperform the single best model within the EUROSIP multi-model. Based on the results, it is recommended to assess seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast of individual climate models as well as their multi-model mean for a comprehensive overview of the forecast skill. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Forecast Verification; Probability Ensemble Forecast; Seasonal climate forecast; Weighted Multi-Model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate modeling; climate prediction; climate variation; ensemble forecasting; precipitation (climatology); probability; weather forecasting; Europe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146380
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Carrer de Jordi Girona, 29-31, Barcelona, 08034, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mishra N.,Prodhomme C.,Guemas V.. Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe[J],2019,52(2020-07-08).
APA	Mishra N.,Prodhomme C.,&Guemas V..(2019).Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-07-08).
MLA	Mishra N.,et al."Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-07-08(2019).