气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluating the MJO prediction skill from different configurations of NCEP GEFS extended forecast

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4423-9
	Evaluating the MJO prediction skill from different configurations of NCEP GEFS extended forecast
	Li W.; Zhu Y.; Zhou X.; Hou D.; Sinsky E.; Melhauser C.; Peña M.; Guan H.; Wobus R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4923
结束页码	4936
卷号	52 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	NOAA is accelerating its efforts to improve the numerical guidance and prediction capability for extended range (weeks 3 and 4) prediction in its seamless forecast system. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of sub-seasonal variability in tropics and prediction skill of MJO is investigated in this paper. We used different configurations of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to perform the experiments. The configurations include (1) the operational version of the stochastic perturbation forced with operational Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs); (2) an updated stochastic physics forced with operational SSTs; (3) an updated stochastic physics forced with bias-corrected SSTs that are from Climate Forecast System (Version 2); and (4) as in (3) but with the addition of a scale aware-convection scheme. We evaluated MJO prediction skill from the experiments using Wheeler–Hendon indices and also examined the performance of the forecast system on prediction of key MJO components. We found that using the updated stochastic scheme improved the MJO prediction lead-time by about 4 days. Further updating the underlying SSTs with the bias corrected CFSv2 forecast increased the MJO prediction lead time by another 1.7 days. The best configuration of the four experiments is the last configuration which extends forecast lead time by ~ 9 days. Further investigation shows that upper and lower level zonal wind over the tropics has larger improvement than the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The improvement of the MJO prediction skill appears to be related primarily to the improvement in the representation associated circulations and OLR over the tropical West Pacific. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; Madden-Julian oscillation; NOAA satellite; sea surface temperature; stochasticity; tropical environment; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (West)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146373
作者单位	EMC, NCEP, NWS, NOAA, College Park, MD 20740, United States; IMSG at EMC, NCEP, NWS, NOAA, College Park, MD 20740, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, United States; SRG at EMC, NCEP, NWS, NOAA, College Park, MD 20740, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li W.,Zhu Y.,Zhou X.,et al. Evaluating the MJO prediction skill from different configurations of NCEP GEFS extended forecast[J],2019,52(2020-07-08).
APA	Li W..,Zhu Y..,Zhou X..,Hou D..,Sinsky E..,...&Wobus R..(2019).Evaluating the MJO prediction skill from different configurations of NCEP GEFS extended forecast.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-07-08).
MLA	Li W.,et al."Evaluating the MJO prediction skill from different configurations of NCEP GEFS extended forecast".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-07-08(2019).