气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Present-day status and future projection of spring Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP5 model simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4463-1
	Present-day status and future projection of spring Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP5 model simulations
	Chen S.; Wu R.; Song L.; Chen W.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5431
结束页码	5449
卷号	52 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	The present study evaluates the performance of 19 climate models that participated in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) in reproducing climatology, the standard deviation, and the dominant mode of spring surface air temperature (SAT) variations over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia based on historical runs. Future change of the Eurasian spring SAT under the anthropogenic global warming is also examined by comparing the historical and RCP4.5 run. All the 19 CMIP5 models capture well the observed spatial structure of climatological spring SAT, with the pattern correlation coefficients all larger than 0.94. However, most of the models tend to underestimate the SAT over north Europe and north Siberia and overestimate the SAT south of 50°N. There exists large inter-model spreads in the standard deviation of the spring SAT. Most of the models capture realistically the observed dominant mode of interannual variations of spring SAT. Analyses show that the ability of a CMIP5 model in capturing the dominant mode of Eurasian spring SAT variations is connected with the model’s performance in representing the observed atmospheric circulation anomalies related to the Arctic Oscillation and the dominant mode of the atmospheric variations over Eurasia. Six best models are selected based on the ability in simulating the dominant mode of the spring SAT variations in the historical runs. These six models project an increase in the SAT climatology but a decrease in the standard deviation over most of Eurasia. These six models project a decrease in the explained variance as well as in the amplitude of the spring SAT and atmospheric anomalies related to the dominant mode. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CMIP5; Eurasian surface air temperature; Future projection; Spring; The dominant mode
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; Arctic Oscillation; climate modeling; climatology; CMIP; future prospect; global warming; spring (season); temperature anomaly; Europe; Siberia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146347
作者单位	Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen S.,Wu R.,Song L.,et al. Present-day status and future projection of spring Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP5 model simulations[J],2019,52(2020-09-10).
APA	Chen S.,Wu R.,Song L.,&Chen W..(2019).Present-day status and future projection of spring Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP5 model simulations.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-09-10).
MLA	Chen S.,et al."Present-day status and future projection of spring Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP5 model simulations".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-09-10(2019).