气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamics-based regression models for the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4460-4
	Dynamics-based regression models for the South Atlantic Convergence Zone
	Nielsen D.M.; Belém A.L.; Marton E.; Cataldi M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5527
结束页码	5553
卷号	52 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) plays a key role in the South American monsoon system (SAMS) precipitation regime, and accounts for around 25% of the rainfall volume over Southeast Brazil between October and April, on average, with peaks of 56% in March and 41% in January. Due to its often varying position and multi-variable structure, diagnosing or quantifying SACZ episodes may lie on subjective criteria. The present study provides a climatological characterization of different SACZ types, based on their position, and differences in dynamics analysed from 19 SAMS wet periods. A cycle in SACZ configurations is identified during the rainy season: northernmost (southernmost) episodes are more likely to occur during the onset/demise (peak) months of the SAMS. Objective SACZ indices are developed taking the principal components of the dynamics of the SACZ as explanatory variables, not including precipitation. The most sensitive threshold proposed for the identification of mean SACZ type yields simultaneous true positive rate of 86%, false alarm rate of 28%, true negative rate of 72% and false negative rate of 15%, for example. The indices have potential to bring gains in predictability to SACZ-related precipitation in Southeast Brazil, apart from allowing the objective diagnosis of SACZ episodes. The indices are also correlated with the South American precipitation dipole and may be used to identify anomalous SAMS precipitation at longer time scales as well. © 2018, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Binary classification; Logistic regression; Objective index; Precipitation anomalies; SACZ; South American monsoon system
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric dynamics; classification; monsoon; numerical model; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; regression analysis; Brazil
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146327
作者单位	Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Biossistemas, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niterói, Brazil; Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niterói, Brazil; Departamento de Meteorologia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nielsen D.M.,Belém A.L.,Marton E.,et al. Dynamics-based regression models for the South Atlantic Convergence Zone[J],2019,52(2020-09-10).
APA	Nielsen D.M.,Belém A.L.,Marton E.,&Cataldi M..(2019).Dynamics-based regression models for the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-09-10).
MLA	Nielsen D.M.,et al."Dynamics-based regression models for the South Atlantic Convergence Zone".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-09-10(2019).