气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4492-9
	Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier
	Wang S.; Sobel A.H.; Tippett M.K.; Vitart F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6015
结束页码	6031
卷号	52 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection in the WMO subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast database is assessed using the real-time OLR based MJO (ROMI) index. ROMI prediction skill in the S2S models, as measured by the maximum lead time at which the bivariate correlation coefficient between forecasts and observations exceeds 0.6, ranges from ~ 15 to ~ 36 days in boreal winter, which is 5–10 days higher than the MJO circulation prediction skill based on the MJO RMM index. ROMI prediction skill is systematically lower by 5–10 days in summer than in winter. Predictability measures show similar seasonal contrast in the two seasons. These results indicate that intraseasonal convection is inherently less predictable in summer than in winter. Further evaluation of correlation skill assuming either perfect amplitude or perfect phase forecasts indicates that phase bias is the main contributor to skill degradation at longer forecast lead times. Nearly all the S2S models have lesser skill for target dates in which the MJO convection is centered over the Maritime Continent (MC) in boreal winter, and phase bias contributes to this MC prediction barrier. This issue is less prevalent in boreal summer. Many S2S models significantly underestimate ROMI amplitudes at longer forecast leads. Probabilistic evaluation of the S2S model skills in forecasting ROMI amplitude is further assessed using the ranked probability skill score (RPSS). RPSS varies significantly across models, from no skill to more than 30 days, which is partly due to model configuration and partly due to amplitude bias. Accounting for the systematic underestimates of the amplitude improves RPSS. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric circulation; atmospheric convection; climate prediction; correlation; marine atmosphere; seasonal variation; tropical meteorology
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146323
作者单位	Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang S.,Sobel A.H.,Tippett M.K.,et al. Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier[J],2019,52(2020-09-10).
APA	Wang S.,Sobel A.H.,Tippett M.K.,&Vitart F..(2019).Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-09-10).
MLA	Wang S.,et al."Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-09-10(2019).