气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4514-7
	The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region
	Zhao A.D.; Stevenson D.S.; Bollasina M.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6257
结束页码	6278
卷号	52 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future projections (up to 2100) of summertime precipitation and precipitation extremes over the Asian monsoon region is investigated, by comparing two sets of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) large ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario (RCP8.5) and the corresponding scenario with aerosol fixed at 2005 levels (RCP8.5_FixA). The model is verified to be performing well in capturing present-day (1986–2005) climate and precipitation extremes. Our results suggest that the Asian monsoon region would become progressively warmer and wetter in the future under RCP8.5, while precipitation extremes will be significantly aggravated due to anthropogenic aerosol mitigation, particularly over East Asia. Specifically, aerosol reductions are found to shift the distribution of precipitation mean and extremes to larger values. For example, aerosol reductions would result in an increased likelihood of extreme precipitation (e.g. the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount) and related disasters. Sensitivities of changes in precipitation mean and extremes to local warming from aerosol reductions are much larger than that from greenhouse gas increases. This is particularly important over East Asia in accordance with larger magnitudes of aerosol reductions compared to South Asia. Finally, by investigating the response of the climate system to aerosol changes, our findings demonstrate that aerosol induced precipitation changes would be dominated by aerosol–radiation–cloud forcing over northern East Asia and aerosol forcing induced large-scale circulation anomalies over southern East and South Asia. © 2018, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Anthropogenic aerosols; Asian Summer Monsoon; Precipitation extremes; RCP8.5
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; anthropogenic source; climate forcing; cloud radiative forcing; extreme event; future prospect; monsoon; precipitation intensity; Far East; South Asia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146307
作者单位	School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao A.D.,Stevenson D.S.,Bollasina M.A.. The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region[J],2019,52(2020-09-10).
APA	Zhao A.D.,Stevenson D.S.,&Bollasina M.A..(2019).The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-09-10).
MLA	Zhao A.D.,et al."The role of anthropogenic aerosols in future precipitation extremes over the Asian Monsoon Region".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-09-10(2019).