气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4
	Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models
	Bell S.S.; Chand S.S.; Tory K.J.; Dowdy A.J.; Turville C.; Ye H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6065
结束页码	6079
卷号	52 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	A recently validated algorithm for detecting and tracking tropical cyclones (TCs) in coarse resolution climate models was applied to a selected group of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to assess potential changes in TC track characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) due to greenhouse warming. Current-climate simulations over the period 1970–2000 are first evaluated against observations using measures of TC genesis location and frequency, as well as track trajectory and lifetime in seven objectively defined genesis regions. The 12-model (12-M) ensemble showed substantial skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology over the evaluation period. To address potential biases associated with model interdependency, analyses were repeated with an ensemble of five independent models (5-M). Results from both the 12-M and 5-M ensembles were very similar, instilling confidence in the models for climate projections if the current TC-climate relationship is to remain stationary. Projected changes in TC track density between the current- and future-climate (2070–2100) simulations under the Representatives Concentration 8.5 Pathways (RCP8.5) are also assessed. Overall, projection results showed a substantial decrease (~ 1–3 per decade) in track density over most parts of the SH by the end of the twenty-first century. This decrease is attributed to a significant reduction in TC numbers (~ 15–42%) consistent with changes in large-scale environmental parameters such as relative vorticity, environmental vertical wind shear and relative humidity. This study may assist with adaption pathways and implications for regional-scale climate change for vulnerable regions in the SH. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Model projection; Southern hemisphere; Track; Tropical cyclone
语种	英语
scopus关键词	algorithm; climate change; CMIP; Southern Hemisphere; storm track; tropical cyclone
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146300
作者单位	Centre for Informatics and Applied Optimization, Federation University Australia, Ballarat, 3357, Australia; Research and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, 3001, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bell S.S.,Chand S.S.,Tory K.J.,et al. Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models[J],2019,52(2020-09-10).
APA	Bell S.S.,Chand S.S.,Tory K.J.,Dowdy A.J.,Turville C.,&Ye H..(2019).Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models.Climate Dynamics,52(2020-09-10).
MLA	Bell S.S.,et al."Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models".Climate Dynamics 52.2020-09-10(2019).