气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO diversity in a last Millennium context

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3573-5
	Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO diversity in a last Millennium context
	Stevenson S.; Capotondi A.; Fasullo J.; Otto-Bliesner B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7359
结束页码	7374
卷号	52 期号:12
英文摘要	The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits considerable differences between the evolution of individual El Niño and La Niña events (‘ENSO diversity’), with significant implications for impacts studies. However, the degree to which external forcing may affect ENSO diversity is not well understood, due to both internal variability and potentially compensatory contributions from multiple forcings. The Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM LME) provides an ideal testbed for studying the sensitivity of twentieth century ENSO to forced climate changes, as it contains many realizations of the 850–2005 period with differing combinations of forcings. Metrics of ENSO amplitude and diversity are compared across LME simulations, and although forced changes to ENSO amplitude are generally small, forced changes to diversity are often detectable. Anthropogenic changes to greenhouse gas and ozone/aerosol emissions modify the persistence of Eastern and Central Pacific El Niño events, through shifts in the upwelling and zonal advective feedbacks; these influences generally cancel one another over the twentieth century. Other forcings can also be quite important: land use changes amplify Eastern Pacific El Niño events via modulating zonal advective heating, and orbital forcing tends to preferentially terminate twentieth century Central Pacific El Niño events due to enhanced eastern Pacific cooling during boreal winter and spring. Our results indicate that multiple anthropogenic and natural forcings can have substantial impacts on ENSO diversity, and suggest that correctly representing the net ENSO diversity response to climate change will depend on the precise balance between all these influences. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
英文关键词	Climate dynamics; Climate modeling; Climate variability; El Niño/Southern oscillation; Tropical pacific
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate forcing; climate modeling; climate variation; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; La Nina; twentieth century; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Central); Pacific Ocean (East); Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146283
作者单位	Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Dr., Boulder, CO, United States; Physical Sciences Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stevenson S.,Capotondi A.,Fasullo J.,et al. Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO diversity in a last Millennium context[J],2019,52(12).
APA	Stevenson S.,Capotondi A.,Fasullo J.,&Otto-Bliesner B..(2019).Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO diversity in a last Millennium context.Climate Dynamics,52(12).
MLA	Stevenson S.,et al."Forced changes to twentieth century ENSO diversity in a last Millennium context".Climate Dynamics 52.12(2019).