气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4526-3
	Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system
	Monerie P.-A.; Robson J.; Dong B.; Dieppois B.; Pohl B.; Dunstone N.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6491
结束页码	6510
卷号	52 期号:11
英文摘要	We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability. © 2018, The Author(s).
英文关键词	ENSO; High resolution climate models; Seasonal prediction; Southern African precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; summer; teleconnection; weather forecasting; Mozambique
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146264
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Department of Oceanography, MARE Institute, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, UMR6282 Biogéosciences, CNRS/Université de Bourgogne Franche Comté, Dijon, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Monerie P.-A.,Robson J.,Dong B.,et al. Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system[J],2019,52(11).
APA	Monerie P.-A.,Robson J.,Dong B.,Dieppois B.,Pohl B.,&Dunstone N..(2019).Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system.Climate Dynamics,52(11).
MLA	Monerie P.-A.,et al."Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system".Climate Dynamics 52.11(2019).