气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regional trend changes in recent surface warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4524-5
	Regional trend changes in recent surface warming
	Zang C.S.; Jochner-Oette S.; Cortés J.; Rammig A.; Menzel A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6463
结束页码	6473
卷号	52 期号:11
英文摘要	It has been argued in the literature that global temperature increased at a reduced rate between approximately 1998 and 2013, a phenomenon known as the ‘global warming hiatus’. Statistically motivated studies searching for numerical evidence for this episode typically argue against the detectability of a slowdown. At the same time, process-oriented studies on potential causes of the slowdown are more focused on establishing the consistency between observations and model-based expectations of surface warming. Here, we employ three different gridded temperature data sets, two different statistical tests, and four different sets of periods for defining a baseline period and slowdown period associated to the recent slowdown in surface warming to provide strong evidence against consistent regional patterns of significant changes in the warming trend. Roughly half of the earth’s surface has experienced a reduced warming trend during the slowdown period, which is strongly connected to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation as a main source of internal variability of the climate system. This finding is consistent with the understanding of the role of internal decadal variability of the climate obtained from modelling and attribution studies. However, controlling for false discovery rates in the context of multiple testing in the spatial domain, we found that only less than 5% of the earth’s surface have experienced a significant regional slowdown in surface warming. At the same time, for roughly the same small number of grid cells we found the opposite pattern of a significant acceleration in warming. In both cases, the identified areas are not robust against the choice of temperature data set and statistical test, as well as against the delineation of the testing periods for baseline and slowdown periods. Our results demonstrate that similar to previous findings at the global level, statistical testing accounting for the multiple testing nature of the problem argues against a robust detectability of the ‘warming hiatus’ at the regional level. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Hiatus; Regional temperature; Slowdown
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; data set; decadal variation; hiatus; regional climate; temperature gradient; trend analysis; warming
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146260
作者单位	Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, Freising, 85354, Germany; Physical Geography/Landscape Ecology and Sustainable Ecosystem Development, Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, Ostenstraße 18, Eichstätt, 85072, Germany; Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Loebdergraben 32, Jena, 07743, Germany; Institute for Advanced Study, Technical University of Munich, Lichtenbergstraße 2a, Garching, 85748, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zang C.S.,Jochner-Oette S.,Cortés J.,et al. Regional trend changes in recent surface warming[J],2019,52(11).
APA	Zang C.S.,Jochner-Oette S.,Cortés J.,Rammig A.,&Menzel A..(2019).Regional trend changes in recent surface warming.Climate Dynamics,52(11).
MLA	Zang C.S.,et al."Regional trend changes in recent surface warming".Climate Dynamics 52.11(2019).